Home » Industry » Electricity Commission archive » Statement of Opportunities (SOO) - archive » 2008 Statement of Opportunities - archive » Supporting information - archive

Supporting information - archive

The draft 2008 SOO was the second SOO published by the Commission and is published in accordance with rule 9 of section III of Part F of the Electricity Governance Rules (Rules). The ‘Initial SOO’ was published in May 2005.

The purpose of the SOO was to provide information to the electricity sector to enable the identification of potential opportunities for efficient management of the grid, including investment in upgrades and investment in transmission alternatives.

In particular, the SOO was relevant to the Grid Investment Test (GIT) and the Grid Reliability Standards (GRS) under part F of the Rules, each of which refer to the possible future scenarios set out in the SOO. This is because the generation scenarios and demand forecasts in the SOO are default “market development scenarios” used for the analysis of proposals by Transpower for grid investments.

The Government Policy Statement on Electricity Governance (GPS) required the Commission to publish a SOO every two years. In May 2007 the Commission delayed the publication of the second SOO while the New Zealand Energy Strategy (NZES) and the 2008 GPS were being finalised. These, together with the New Zealand Energy Efficiency Conservations Strategy (NZEECS), set out the Government’s high-level direction and aspirations for the energy (and electricity) sector. This SOO was consistent with these high-level policy statements.

Each SOO was based on three key bodies of work:

• Grid Planning Assumptions – (GPAs)
• Grid Reliability Statements – (GRSs)
• Power Systems Analysis – (PSA).

On 21 February 2008 the Commission published the draft 2008 GPAs for consultation. A workshop on the GPAs was held on 29 February 2008, and the consultation period closed on 13 March 2008. Nine written submissions were received, and the 2008 GPAs were finalised in April 2008.

Issues raised in submissions on the GPAs were incorporated, wherever possible, into the draft 2008 SOO or into the Commission’s programme of ongoing development relating to subsequent SOO material.   

The 2008 GPAs included committed investment projects; a reasonable range of credible demand forecasts by region, or grid exit point; and a reasonable range of credible future, high-level generation scenarios.

The energy and peak demand forecasts in the draft 2008 SOO were significantly different to those presented in the Initial SOO. A complete review of the energy demand forecasting process was carried out, and projections of long term demand growth were lowered as a result. The approach used for peak demand forecasting was also substantially revised.

The generation scenarios were designed to encompass the range of uncertainty, and although each scenario was intended to be a plausible view of the future, none represented the Commission’s view of a ‘most likely’ future scenario.

The PSA identified when the grid capability, in any given scenario (the GPA) no longer meet the GRS.

SOO Workshop – 21 July 2008

The Commission held an industry workshop in Wellington in July 2008 to set out the key results of the work, describe the content and processes used and provide a forum for discussion to assist participants in their submission process.

This page is related to: Transmission.

Back to top Last updated on 6 December 2010