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Demand forecasting

The Authority develops long-term forecasts of future electricity demand at national, regional, and grid exit point levels. These forecasts are used for assessing proposed changes to the participation code and for long-term generation and system modelling.

The Authority’s approach to forecasting has been to develop base forecasts that project forward on a ‘business as usual’ basis, using historical indicators of demand for electricity. Step changes in demand are then modelled separately, and used to adjust the base forecast, (for example new energy efficiency programs, technologies, or industries). This approach enables the impact (or benefits) of the ‘step-changes’ to be quantified and incorporated into scenarios.

Forecasting of demand on shorter time frames is carried out by the System Operator.

The documents below detail the current Authority forecasts and the models and inputs used to produce them.

Contact Brian Kirtlan for any further information on the Commission's demand forecasting work programme.

This page is related to: Demand.

Back to top Last updated on 18 April 2012