Archive - Grid Planning Assumptions
The grid planning assumptions (GPAs) were a set of information, published by the Commission, for use in the Commission's Statement of Opportunities (SOO).
The information includes:
- committed projects for additional generation, transmission and demand-side management;
- a reasonable range of credible demand forecasts by region or grid exit point (i.e. high, medium, and low); and
- a reasonable range of credible future, high-level generation scenarios.
The first set of grid planning assumptions prepared by the Commission was published in the 2005 SOO.
Draft GPAs 2006 - 2008
In September 2006, the Electricity Commission developed draft GPAs as an initial step in preparing a 2007 SOO. This included the preparation and publication of demand forecasts and four generation scenarios for consultation with interested parties.
In May 2007, the Commission decided to delay the publication of the next SOO until the New Zealand Energy Strategy was finalised. However, the Commission confirmed and published the draft demand forecasts and generation scenarios that were developed and consulted on in September 2006.
Following finalisation of the New Zealand Energy Strategy and receipt of additional information from Transpower, the Commission revised the generation scenarios and other key inputs to the draft GPAs that were released in May 2007 and recommenced work on preparing a 2008 SOO.
The Commission published the draft 2008 GPAs for consultation in February 2008.
As part of its process to seek feedback from participants about the development of the GPAs, the Commission held a workshop on 29 February 2008 in Wellington. The workshop was both of a general and a technical nature and provided stakeholders with an opportunity to hear directly from Commission staff and to ask questions about various aspects of the GPAs.
- Demand forecasting
- Draft 2008 SOO generation scenarios
- Inter-regional transmission capacity analysis
Comments on the draft 2008 GPAs were sought by 13 March 2008. The Commission prepared a summary of the submissions received and its response.
- Summary of submissions and response
Following consultation, the Commission refined its generation scenarios for inclusion in the draft SOO and published the draft 2008 SOO for consultation on 4 July 2008.
The Commission held an industry workshop in Wellington on Monday 21 July 2008 to set out the key results of the work, describe the content and processes used and provide a forum for discussion to assist participants in their submission process.
The Commission was required to publish a Statement of Opportunities (SOO) as part of its duties in overseeing aspects of transmission investment. Rule 9.1.2 stated that the purpose of a SOO is to enable indentification of potential opportunities for efficient management of the grid, including investment in upgrades and transmission alternatives. In practice, a SOO also had a wider role to play in informing stakeholders about possible future developments in the power system.
The Commission published the 2008 SOO on 29 August 2008. It incorporated demand forecasts and generation scenarios.
Supplementary material related to the forecasts and scenarios is referenced within the SOO document
Note: Rule 9.3 of section III of part F of the Electricity Governance Rules (Rules) provided that no liability will attach to the Board, Transpower or any other person for the accuracy of the grid planning assumptions set out in the statements of opportunities.
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The Authority considers that it is important to understand the potential impact of emerging technologies eg, the potential for marine and solar energy, on the New Zealand electricity market. Accordingly, a work programme has been initiated to look further into emerging technologies and their effects.
This work will have multiple benefits, such as providing the Authority with information about the status and impacts of emerging technologies, and giving industry participants and other governmental agencies a better perspective of the implications of the adoption of new technologies on the New Zealand energy market.