This included the preparation and publication of demand forecasts and four generation scenarios for consultation with interested parties.


In May 2007, the Commission decided to delay the publication of the next SOO until the New Zealand Energy Strategy (NZES) was finalised. However, the Commission confirmed and published the demand forecasts and generation scenarios that were developed and consulted on in September 2006.

Once the Government's climate change policies had been developed further and the NZES has been finalised, the Commission is recommenced work on preparing the next SOO, for publication in 2008. As an initial step, the Commission has revised the generation scenarios and other key inputs to the draft GPAs that were released in May 2007.

More detailed work to review the draft May 2007 GPAs was then carried out, beginning with the release of an updated demand forecast.

Grid Planning Assumptions information

May 2007

The Commission has decided to delay publication of the next SOO until the New Zealand Energy Strategy has been announced due to the fact that it could become inaccurate if it was published before the NZES was announced. This may mean, depending on the amount of re-work required, that another SOO will not be published until 2008.

The Commission is however mindful of the important role performed by the SOO and the need to update information contained in the Initial SOO. Consistent with this the Commission has confirmed and published the demand scenarios that were developed and consulted on in September 2006.

The Commission has also written to Transpower to advise that it should use specific Grid Planning Assumptions (GPAs) which were developed after consultation for the draft 2007 SOO as the starting point for analysis in applying the Grid Investment Test (GIT) to any new investments proposals. Transpower or other parties were able to propose variations to the Commission of the MDS defined by these GPAs under clause 6.1 of the GIT.

Determining the grid planning assumption

Request for feedback on grid planning assumptions, September 2006

As an initial step in the development of the next SOO the Commission developed the GPAs. The GPAs included key inputs, forecasts and scenarios used in the SOO.

Preparation of the GPA involved assembling a diverse range of data inputs, making a number of key assumptions, and designing modelling methodologies.

The Commission made significant progress in developing the GPAs and is seeking participants' feedback before the detailed analysis work of the SOO was carried out.

The Commission collated and published the following information package and invited feedback on the matters set out in this package, by 5pm 29 September 2006:

Grid planning assumptions workshop September 2006

As part of its process to seek feedback from participants about the development of the GPAs, the Commission held a workshop for stakeholders on 22 September 2006, that focussed on the technical aspects of the information package, and provided stakeholders with an opportunity to hear directly from Commission staff and to ask questions about various aspects of the work-in-progress GPAs and key input assumptions.

Brainstorm session July 2006

The Commission started the detailed process to develop scenarios for the next SOO by holding an informal 'brainstorm' session, in July 2006, with key individuals from a variety of stakeholder groups to discuss the high-level parameters of the scenarios.

These parameters were such things as the key uncertainties that will define the sorts of future to be described by the scenarios, as well as certainties that should be present in every scenario.

Workshop November 2006

The Commission held a workshop for participants and other interested parties on Monday 21 November 2005 in Wellington.