Intermittent generation forecasts

This data shows the variance between real time and forecasted intermittent electricity generation by lead time. The darker the colour in the table below, the more pronounced the difference between real time and forecasted generation.

The data is from all wind farms that sell electricity in the New Zealand market. The forecasts should get more accurate closer to real time, as better weather forecasts are available. If forecasts are not getting more accurate, market participants may not be revising their offers as much as they could.

Understanding the variability and uncertainty in output from intermittent generation sources is important for the electricity market. This information helps market participants make production and consumption decisions. It also helps the system operator manage the potential impact short-term variations may have on grid constraints and the generation-load balance.

The Electricity Authority is working to improve the accuracy of intermittent generators’ offers across all trading periods and increase confidence in the availability of electricity generation.