Forecasting provisions for intermittent generators
Consultation
This consultation sought feedback on proposed solutions to improve the accuracy and frequency of intermittent generation forecasts.
We have observed that intermittent generation forecasts are often inaccurate and unreliable until close to real time. Inaccurate forecasting is prevalent because there are minimal obligations around the accuracy of intermittent generation forecasts. Intermittent generators have few incentives to forecast accurately as there is little correlation between forecasting accuracy and revenue earnt in the spot market.
It is estimated that the share of supply from intermittent generation will increase from around 6% of total generation today to 47% by 2050. In the shorter term, 78% of actively pursued projects that could be completed by 2025 are solar projects, with wind projects accounting for most of the remaining generation potential. Therefore, it is an appropriate time to review the forecasting arrangements for intermittent generators.
Thanks to all who provided valuable input into this consultation. We are carefully considering all submissions to decide which option to progress for Winter 2024.
Submissions
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Consumer Advocacy Council3 pages
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Contact Energy8 pages
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ETSI12 pages
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NewPower Energy5 pages
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Genesis Energy10 pages
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Helios Energy5 pages
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Lodestone Energy4 pages
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Manawa Energy2 pages
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Mercury Energy4 pages
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Meridian Energy9 pages
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Major Electricity Users Group2 pages
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Nova Energy7 pages
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Transpower10 pages