Enabling investment and innovation
Making price forecasts more accurate
Improving spot price predictions to encourage efficient demand response and generation scheduling.
Overview
In August 2017, we published our decision paper Making price forecasts more accurate with our decision to improve inputs into price forecasts under existing incentive arrangements.
Following our decision paper, the system operator investigated options for improving their load forecast. A new TESLA load forecast for the system operator went live in March 2022.
In August 2020, Transpower sought feedback on a Proof of Concept of a sensitivity schedule. The schedule predicted how changes in demand may affect changes in spot prices to help participants visualise the sensitivity of price forecasts. Transpower found there was limited interest in the sensitivity schedules so their production was discontinued.
A form of the sensitivity schedule work was resurrected as part of our Winter 2023 work and is published on WITS.
Timeline
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21 February - 4 April 2017
Consultation —
Project background
Accurate price forecasts are expected to encourage more efficient demand response and generation scheduling. In July 2015, the Electricity Authority began exploring two refinements to the spot electricity market:
- Settling prices based on system conditions in real time.
- Adding or facilitating an hours-ahead market.
This project looked at hours-ahead market options and how to improve the accuracy of price information in the hours leading up to real time.
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